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PI

PAVmed Inc. (PAVM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP results were driven by deconsolidation and other income: revenue of $10k, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.12, and non-GAAP adjusted loss per share of $(0.06); operating expenses fell to $5.2M as the company pivoted to a shared-services, subsidiary-driven model .
  • Lucid Diagnostics processed a record 4,042 EsoGuard tests (+45% QoQ, +84% YoY) and recognized $1.2M revenue; positive coverage from Highmark BCBS and rapid uptake of concierge medicine (>20 contracts) bolster commercialization momentum .
  • Veris Health secured $2.4M financing at a $35M pre-money valuation, extended its OSU James Cancer Hospital pilot through April 2025, and targets an FDA submission for its implantable physiological monitor by late 2025 or early 2026 .
  • Structural actions (Lucid deconsolidation and debt exchange) enabled Nasdaq compliance; management expects ~$25M to be added to PAVmed’s equity in Q1 2025, enhancing balance sheet stability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record EsoGuard test volume and initial commercial coverage: 4,042 tests in Q4, $1.2M revenue, Highmark BCBS positive coverage, and new concierge sales channel (>20 contracts) .
  • Strategic financing milestones: Veris closed $2.4M financing at a $35M pre-money valuation and supplemented funding with a $1.8M NIH grant to optimize the Veris Cancer Care Platform .
  • Balance sheet stabilization and Nasdaq compliance: Deconsolidation of Lucid and debt restructuring improved equity and listing compliance. “PAVmed is now in a very strong position to operate as it was designed—as a diversified commercial life sciences company with multiple independently-financed subsidiaries” — Lishan Aklog, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Minimal reported revenue at parent post-deconsolidation: Q4 2024 revenue was $10k reflecting Veris platform activity (approx. 125 patients), with Lucid revenues no longer consolidated .
  • Timing pushout for Veris implantable monitor FDA submission: From an earlier target around 1H 2025 to late 2025 or early 2026 as financing and manufacturing partners reboot .
  • Continued reliance on other income to support GAAP profitability: Q4 “Other (Income) Expense” was $(6.33)M, including $3.2M management service income from Lucid, highlighting non-operating drivers of net income .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results (GAAP and Non-GAAP)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)$979 $996 $10
Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)$14,663 $12,574 $5,198
Other (Income) Expense ($USD Thousands)$1,230 $(72,289) $(6,330)
Net (Income) Loss ($USD Thousands)$14,914 $(60,711) $(1,142)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(1.19) $1.44 $0.12
Non-GAAP Adjusted (Loss) per Share ($USD)$(0.84) $(0.54) $(0.06)

Notes: Q4 revenue reflects Veris platform activity only; Lucid revenues deconsolidated as of Sept 10, 2024 . Q4 other income includes $3.2M management service income from Lucid .

Estimate vs Actual (S&P Global Consensus)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)1,238,000*1,093,330*20,000*
Revenue Actual ($USD)979,000* 996,000* 10,000*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)(1.34)*(1.30)*(0.40)*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)(0.20)*(0.54)*(0.06)*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Highlights vs estimates:

  • Q4 2024: Revenue $10k vs $20k consensus → miss; Primary EPS $(0.06) vs $(0.40) consensus → bold beat on normalized EPS*.
  • Q3 2024: Revenue $996k vs $1,093k consensus → miss; Primary EPS $(0.54) vs $(1.30) consensus → beat*.
  • Q2 2024: Revenue $979k vs $1,238k consensus → miss; Primary EPS $(0.20) vs $(1.34) consensus → beat*.
    Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals cited above.

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Lucid EsoGuard Tests (Units)3,147 2,787 4,042
Lucid EsoGuard Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.0 $1.2 $1.2
Concierge Medicine Contracts (Count)>20
Commercial Insurance Coverage Policies (Count)First policy at Highmark BCBS; BCBS Rhode Island agreement
Veris Platform Patients (Approx.)~125

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Veris Implantable Monitor FDA Submission TimingRegulatory milestone510(k) submission targeted near 1H 2025 Submission by end of 2025 or early 2026 Lowered (delayed)
Veris OSU James Cancer Hospital EngagementQ1–Q2 2025Pilot completed; long-term agreement under discussion Pilot extended through April 2025; long-term agreement “imminent” Extended (timing)
Cash Runway2025Financing efforts underway Debt refinancing and equity raise extend runway beyond reimbursement milestones Raised (improved liquidity)
Lucid Medicare Coverage (MolDX Reconsideration)H1 2025Clinical evidence package completed; seeking coverage Reconsideration submitted in Nov; expecting action H1 2025 Maintained (timeline clarity)
Nasdaq Compliance1Q 2025Plan to regain compliance by Jan 31, 2025 Regained minimum bid price and equity compliance; ~$25M add to equity in Q1 2025 from restructuring/deconsolidation Achieved/Improved

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2–Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Lucid commercialization (volume, coverage)Q2: 3,147 tests; Q3: 2,787 tests; clinical validation published Q4: 4,042 tests (record); Highmark BCBS coverage; concierge expansion (>20 contracts) Strengthening (volume, payor traction)
Medicare MolDX coverage pathMeetings with MAC MolDX; evidence package completed Reconsideration submitted in Nov; anticipate H1 2025 action Advancing (near-term catalyst)
Veris implantable monitorFinancing pursuit; submission target near 1H 2025 $2.4M financing closed; submission now late 2025/early 2026 Slower (timeline pushout)
OSU James Cancer Hospital partnershipPilot completed; discussions ongoing Pilot extended to April; long-term strategic commercial agreement “imminent” Positive (contract visibility)
AI-enabled clinical decision supportNot prominentBuilding registry/data analytics and AI tools; clinical support offering Emerging (product roadmap)
Balance sheet/Nasdaq compliancePlan described; deconsolidation underway; debt restructure contemplated Compliance regained; equity uplift expected in Q1 2025 Improved (de-risked listing)

Management Commentary

  • “PAVmed is now in a very strong position to operate as it was designed—as a diversified commercial life sciences company with multiple independently-financed subsidiaries” — Lishan Aklog, CEO .
  • “Lucid generated $1.2 million in revenue and a test volume of just over 4,000 tests, which represented a 45% growth quarter-on-quarter” — Lishan Aklog .
  • “Veris completed a private placement financing with gross proceeds of $2.4 million at a $35 million pre-money valuation… allows us to advance… with a regulatory submission by the end of this year or into the first quarter of next year” — Lishan Aklog (later clarified to late 2025/early 2026 submission) .
  • “PAVmed’s management service income from Lucid Diagnostics of $3.2 million for the quarter is reflected in other income… non-GAAP loss of $688,000” — Dennis McGrath, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • OSU James Cancer Hospital agreement structure: Initial commercial engagement plus strategic registry commitments; OSU to be first site for implantable device post-FDA clearance .
  • Implantable monitor regulatory path: Extensive FDA pre-sub interactions; aiming for submission late 2025/early 2026; potential to avoid a full-blown human clinical implantation study via validated skin study .
  • Veris pipeline with other centers: ~12 discussions overall, 4–5 advanced; prioritizing implantable and OSU engagement before expanding pilots; developing AI-based decision support and clinical triage support .
  • PortIO regulatory plan: De novo pathway; IDE study of ~50–80 patients over ~18 months; Gen 2 device advances in parallel; $4M financing at $42M pre-money under diligence .
  • Competitive landscape: Veris differentiated vs generic RPM tools due to oncology-specific design; implantable monitor seen as moat; OSU RFP selected Veris platform .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Actual Primary EPS $(0.06) beat consensus $(0.40); Actual revenue $10k missed consensus $20k*.
  • Pattern across Q2–Q4 2024: Normalized EPS consistently beats, while revenue has trended below small-cap consensus expectations as consolidated reporting shifts post-Lucid deconsolidation*.
  • Implications: Street models likely to adjust for: (a) parent-level revenue minimal post-deconsolidation; (b) operating expense baseline lower; (c) other income (Lucid MSA, equity method impacts) as key drivers of GAAP EPS variability.
    Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Parent-level reported revenue will remain modest post-Lucid deconsolidation; focus shifts to Veris monetization and non-operating drivers (Lucid management services, equity method) in GAAP results .
  • Near-term catalysts: MolDX reconsideration action in H1 2025 for EsoGuard and OSU long-term agreement signing; both can accelerate subsidiary value creation that indirectly benefits PAVmed .
  • Veris implantable submission now targeted for late 2025/early 2026; manage expectations for regulatory milestones and commercialization ramp post-clearance .
  • Liquidity and compliance risks reduced: debt restructuring and deconsolidation improved equity and regained Nasdaq compliance; ~$25M equity uplift expected in Q1 2025 .
  • Lucid execution remains strong: record test volume, initial commercial coverage, and concierge channel are tangible signs of market adoption; further payor wins could be a material stock catalyst .
  • Portfolio optionality: PMX/PortIO advancing toward de novo with dedicated financing; diversified asset base under shared services model provides multiple shots on goal .
  • Trading setup: Watch for MolDX coverage decision and OSU contract details; normalized EPS may remain favorable versus small consensus bases, but GAAP EPS will be volatile due to other income and mark-to-market dynamics .